The Last Word (for Now) on Our RSS Feed: An Excruciatingly Long and Boring Post That Will Please Exactly No One - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog:
1. Over the past two years, we have built up a substantial feed readership, and from the sound of these readers’ comments, many of them will be unsubscribing. To all of you, we say: sorry we’ve disappointed you; we’re sad you’re leaving; thanks for reading in the past; and I hope you’ll come back if we ever resume full feed. In the meantime, we hope you’ll visit the site, but as some of you have made brutally clear, that option doesn’t work for you.
This is cool -- a high visibilty site with large readership who's finally going to TRY this and see what happens. I do hope (and I encourage both the Freaks and the Times to use this as an experience gathering opportunity!) that they'll track metrics and then publish the results back out to the net so we can see what happened.
What percentage of subscribers actually leave? Do they stay away, or do they get replaced? Where those users good or bad users for the advertisers?
There's been a lot of noise over this issue for the last couple of years; now we have a chance to get some real data. Here's hoping those who CAN make that happen do.
What'll happen? God knows -- that's why we need numbers. But if experiences in other parts of the net can be used as a basis for guessing, I'd say the following is likely:
1) the % of people leaving will be small.
2) A good percentage of those threatening to leave won't. Or will leave -- and come back quietly soon thereafter, perhaps from a different location.
3) Many of those leaving are probably bad matches for the advertisers anyway, and/or are hostile to online advertising in general; I wonder if it's possible to correlate the unsubscribers in some way back to people who also use ad blockers or some sort?
4) these people are what I call the "squeaky wheels", and not representative of the user base as a whole.
A great example from my past: the old "reply-to" fight on mailing lists. Trust me, you get a mailing list larger than about 50 people, you'll likely fight this one every year or so, because there's a small but noisy group that believes that there's only one possible right answer, and it's that reply-to should be set to the list (for reasons why many of us who've run email systems and lists over the years don't like it, see reply-to considered harmful. Or don't, it's increasingly irrelevant these days...)
I used to do a nasty thing to these folks -- I'd ask the entire list, instead of just listening to the ones complaining. And the funny thing is, having surveyed mailing lists probably a dozen times over the years, the same basic facts kept cropping up: 80% of the users don't care, and will take the default. Of those that do care, reply-to vs "no reply-to" basically split in half. Certainly no mandate here.
The other interesting fact of these fights was that these folks weren't interested in doing what the majority wanted, or what was right for the community -- they wanted what they wanted, and it wasn't open to discussion. They knew better than everyone else, including the administrators and experts. And the sound of threats of leaving and etc in this situation sounds almost exactly the same as what happened here with reply-to.
The reality from my experience? The people who leave won't be missed. I rarely lost a "significant" contributor over this fight -- and I expect the same here.
But we won't know until we study this, and now we have the chance to create some data instead of people arguing with opinions. And isn't that really what Freakanomics is about?
Here's one quick and easy way to generate a data point -- count up how many people sent complaints, and compare to the size of the feed. How big is it? 25%? 10%? 2% 1/2 of a %?
Chances are, the pool of people threatening to leave is a tiny percentage of the subscribers. And even if you assume each complainer represents ten who will leave silently (and my experience is that the number's MUCH smaller than that; happy people watch quietly, folks like this pushing an agenda tend to do so very forcefully, so the ratio is more like 2:1 or 3:1, most likely), I'd be amazed if they can push the subscriber numbers by 2-3%; frankly, moving the blog to the Times with the visilbilty that'll give it will probably wash away any impact of the "squeaky wheel" crowd's leaving. If they actually leave.
Isn't it funny how some people consider the format more important than what's actually said? That a well-written blog will be ignored if it's not following the right dogma on feed formats? Fortunately -- people that enamoured with the politics of the blogging technologies are rare. Noisy, but rare.
I think this is all a tempest in a teapot. but I sure hope the Times tracks the numbers and reports them so we have some real data to examine the next time this fight happens....
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